PSF Prediction Model: What Will 2025–2026 Launch Prices Really Be?
Introduction: Why Everyone’s Watching PSF in 2025
If you’re thinking about upgrading to a private condo or investing in a new launch unit, you’ve probably asked this: “Will PSF keep going up… or are prices about to correct?”
Since 2020, we’ve seen per-square-foot (PSF) prices in Singapore’s condo market climb aggressively. In 2023, many OCR launches were pushing $2,100 PSF. In 2024, even mass-market condos started inching toward $2,300 PSF. Now, in 2025, the biggest question is: what’s next?
That’s where the PSF Prediction Model comes in. Let’s break it down in simple terms, so you can see where the market is really heading — and what that means for you.
What Is PSF and Why It Matters
“PSF” stands for Price Per Square Foot. It’s the standard way Singapore measures condo prices. It is a tool to compare how a condominium’s pricing with its surrounding properties. Due to post-harmonisation, air-con ledges is no longer part of the floor-plan hence for newer properties in 2024 onwards, developers only include the “inside” space. The total non-inclusive space is around 6% of the property size.
For example, a 720 sqft in internal space of a 2BR size is actually 764 sqft which is the same as in the past. In fact, due to lifestyle habits, property sizes are actually bigger and less wasted space as compared to 10 years ago.
Due to post-harmonisation, it seems like there is a huge increase in PSF. The reality is after factoring the pre-harmonisation size, PSF have not increase by a lot.
The key is if you want to look at PSF as a comparison to know how expensive a property is, do ask:
1. Is this property pre or post-harmonization
2. Do an apple to apple comparison, compare pre to pre, post to post or convert from post to pre-harmonisation to give you the actual picture.
Why Are PSF Prices Still Climbing?
1. Land Costs Are Not Dropping
GLS (Government Land Sales) results in 2024 showed developers still paying top dollar. In fact, the Marina South and Zion Road sites were sold at bullish prices, pushing breakeven costs to over $2,400 PSF for some plots. Developers won’t sell at a loss — which means higher launch prices.
2. Construction Costs Are Still High
Manpower and materials haven’t gone back to pre-COVID rates. The BCA’s Construction Cost Index (Under Construction Demand, Tender Price Index & Construction materials) remains elevated in 2025. In fact, construction costs has risen by close to 40% for the past 10 years! This adds pressure on launch pricing.
3. Buyer Demand is Still Resilient
Despite ABSD and higher interest rates, certain launches like River Green Residences and Promenade Peak saw strong take-up. Singaporeans still want private property — and upgraders are leading the charge.
Inside the PSF Prediction Model (2025–2026)
We analysed over 70 new launches between 2022 to 2025 and compared them against GLS prices, construction data, URA zoning shifts, and buyer patterns.
🔮 Here’s What the Model Tells Us:
| Year | OCR Launch Avg PSF | RCR Launch Avg PSF | CCR Launch Avg PSF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1,680 | $2,150 | $2,750 |
| 2023 | $1,930 | $2,380 | $2,890 |
| 2024 | $2,080 | $2,500 | $3,050 |
| 2025 | $2,200–$2,350 | $2,550–$2,750 | $3,100–$3,300 |
| 2026 | $2,300–$2,500 | $2,650–$2,850 | $3,200–$3,500 |
⚠️ Note:
CCR price growth is flattening — limited demand at $3,500 PSF.
OCR still has room to grow, especially near MRTs or growth nodes (Lentor, Tampines, Beauty World).
RCR will see the most action due to balanced affordability and upside.
In fact, looking at the price difference between RCR and CCR, we see the price difference has narrowed to an all time low. People want properties in RCR or in city fringes as it’s affordable and yet near to city centre. However with the strong demand in RCR and the lowering cost of CCR, people may shift to CCR instead.
What Buyers Miss When They Only Look at PSF
Let’s be real — PSF can be misleading if you’re not careful. A $2,200 PSF unit at 600 sqft might be cheaper than a $1,800 PSF unit at 1,000 sqft. You’re paying for layout, stack, view, and developer branding too. Moreover, buyers may compare a resale pre-harmonisation size and a new launch post-harmonisation size.
Use PSF to compare apples to apples — not blindly across all districts.
What Will Push Prices Higher (Even If the Market Slows)
✅ Future-Proof Zones
The URA Masterplan 2025 outlines new growth corridors in areas like:
Jurong Lake District
Paya Lebar Airbase
Tengah Park District
These areas will anchor RCR and OCR growth. Expect higher land bids and PSF growth once the supporting infrastructure is clearer.
✅ Shrinking Launch Supply
GLS supply is up — but launches are down. Many sites are still under planning or held by developers for future launches. This limited supply supports prices in the short term.
Buyer Psychology: FOMO, Safety, and First-Mover Advantage
In 2025, we see 3 major trends driving demand even at high PSF:
1. Fear of Missing Out
Buyers remember One Bernam and AMO Residence — people who hesitated missed $300k upside. That memory lingers.
2. Desire for Certainty
New launches come with 1-year defects warranty, progressive payment, and brand-new facilities. It gives peace of mind to first-time upgraders.
3. First-Mover Wins
Early birds who enter a launch (first 30% sold) often get the best prices. Later phases are launched higher — and set new benchmarks.
Case Study: 2 Buyers, Same Budget — Different Outcomes
Buyer A: Buys New Launch at $2,200 PSF
2-Bedder, 667 sqft, Total: $1.467M
Pays only ~30% of the mortgage for the first 2 years
Expects completion in 2029
Can sell after MOP or enjoy appreciation from first batch valuation
Buyer B: Buys Resale at $1,900 PSF
2-Bedder, 850 sqft, Total: $1.615M
Pays full loan immediately
Has to spend on renovation
Potential for slower appreciation due to surrounding resale prices
➡️ Who wins long term? Depends — but in a rising market, Buyer A often has the edge due to leverage, lower upfront cost, and newer facilities. Personal Opinion: Looking at historical trend, I’m still very certain Buyer A will win long-term. Refer to New Launch vs Resale Data over the last 10 years for statistics data.
So… Will PSF Crash in 2026?
Unlikely. Unless we see a major economic downturn, most signs point to slower growth, not a sharp fall. Developers are cautious but not desperate. And land costs are locked in.
The only thing that could cause prices to flatten is if buyers become more price-sensitive due to higher interest rates or economic pressure.
Final Thoughts: Is 2025 the Right Time to Buy?
If you’re waiting for prices to drop, you’re betting against land costs, construction, and demand — all of which are still trending up.
But if you can afford it, buying early in a launch still gives you the best odds for long-term capital gain.
🔍 Bonus: 3 Launches to Watch in Late 2025
Zion Road GLS (RCR) — Potential riverfront icon, pricing from $2,700 PSF
Tampines East (OCR) — Great for families, early pricing estimated ~$2,100 PSF
Media Circle One-North (RCR) — For investors, great tenant pool, launching ~Q4 2025
Want to Know Which Launch Matches Your Budget?
Use our free Mortgage Affordability calculator or speak to our consultants for a tailored shortlist based on your income, timeline, and exit strategy.