Will Property Prices Drop in 2025? Here's What the Latest GLS Tells Us
With nearly 9,700 new private homes expected in 2025, many Singaporean homeowners and property investors are asking the same question: Will prices finally fall? But a closer look at the latest Government Land Sales (GLS) data reveals a very different story.
In June 2025, the government released 10 GLS sites that will yield about 4,725 new units, adding to earlier parcels. This brings the total supply to the highest level since 2014. However, the increase in supply is not a signal of a market crash—but a strategic effort to ensure long-term balance and price stability.
Let’s break down what this means if you’re looking to buy your next home or invest wisely.
More Supply, But Not a Fire Sale
While the raw numbers may seem alarming, it’s important to look at where the land is being released. The new GLS sites include Tanjong Rhu, Dover, Lentor, and Bedok Rise—all mature estates with strong existing demand, good transport links, and high liveability scores.
This isn’t a flood of supply into fringe zones. Instead, it’s targeted inventory in prime, proven neighbourhoods, where buyers are actively searching for homes near MRT stations, schools, and lifestyle hubs.
Take the upcoming Dover Road site near One-North MRT, for instance. Comparable new launches in the area are already transacting at $2,300–$2,400 psf. With its central location and proximity to employment hubs, demand is likely to remain strong even with more supply.
Or consider Bedok Rise, the last GLS plot within walking distance of Tanah Merah MRT. Existing projects like Seneca Residences have already broken the $2,000 psf mark, showing that buyers are willing to pay a premium for such locations.
Why Prices Won’t Crash
The fear of a price correction is common whenever new supply is introduced, but the real estate market doesn’t function like a stock exchange. Here’s why:
Developers aren’t overpaying blindly. They submit bids based on careful projections of construction costs, marketing expenses, and expected profit margins.
Land pricing sets the floor, not the ceiling. If a developer pays $1,200 psf for land, launch prices typically fall within the 2.0–2.2x range, resulting in launch prices of $2,400–$2,640 psf.
The government isn’t trying to trigger a crash. Instead, its aim is to stabilise prices by offering sufficient supply in areas where demand is already entrenched.
In short, the supply increase is a calibrated move to cool exuberance, not spark a fire sale.
The PSF Prediction Model: Your Investment Compass
To help our clients make informed decisions, we use a proven framework called the PSF Prediction Model. Developed after over a decade of launch-price data analysis, it’s a simple yet powerful tool:
Multiply the latest land bid price by 2.2x to estimate the likely launch price.
For example:
If the land for a site is acquired at $1,100 psf ppr, then the expected launch price will be roughly $2,420 psf.
This gives you a realistic entry price range so you can decide whether to buy early, wait for stabilisation, or compare across nearby launches.
The PSF Forward Model works best when used together with real-time transaction data, URA caveats, and insights on buyer demographics. It’s not just about pricing—but predicting momentum.
Should You Wait or Enter the Market Now?
If you’re holding out for prices to dip in 2025, you might be disappointed. Given how the GLS is shaping up, there will be more choices, but not necessarily lower prices.
Instead of waiting for bargains, savvy investors and upgraders should focus on:
Identifying undervalued locations within mature estates
Understanding future price trajectories using models like PSF Forward
Timing the entry point before marketing buzz drives up interest
Especially for HDB upgraders or investors with children, projects near top schools, MRT stations, and lifestyle nodesare unlikely to see sharp discounts—even with more launches ahead.
Final Thoughts: Strategic Balance, Not Bargain Basement
The 2025 GLS rollout isn’t a warning sign—it’s a signal of balance. The government is managing supply in a thoughtful, strategic way to support sustainable growth in the private housing market.
Whether you’re looking to invest or upgrade, this is the time to look beyond the headlines and dive into the numbers. Use models like PSF Forward, study recent land bids, and focus on entry price, not just price alone.
If you’re wondering what the PSF Prediction Model predicts for your favourite estate—or want help planning your next property move—let’s map it out together.